Have you ever wondered why experts justified the war in Iraq based on the existence of weapons of mass destruction, yet upon inspection the West were unable to find any trace? In 2008 oil rose above $140 a barrel and experts predicted that very soon it would reach $200. Yet only a few months later it plunged right down to $30. Dan Gardener, the author of ‘Freakonomics’, has released a new book called ‘Future Babble’, which poses the question: If expert predictions keep failing, why do we keep on believing them? Gardener offers us a fast-paced and sometimes darkly humorous read, drawing upon research from cognitive psychology, political science and behavioral economics in the first book to demonstrate that as an ‘expert’ becomes more famous, their claims become less accurate. Apparently in 1911, one such ‘expert’ stated there would be no more wars in Europe… So the author may be onto something. Well we experts here at Cream predict ‘Future Babble’ will be an enlightening hit. Wonder if Gardener would care to argue that one?
‘Future Babble’ is published through Scribe and available in good bookstores.