THE NEW. RETRO. MODERN.

What now for Apple?

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The wild success that Apple had in the final few months of 2014 is now well known.

In an earnings announcement made only more staggering by the disappointing figures all around it, Apple wowed the markets with record-breaking profits. There often tends to be a trend of simultaneous overstatement and understatement when it comes to Apple analysis: it can be hard to see the truth between fanatical pronouncements of the company’s genius and sceptical statements from those that remain unconvinced.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, then, the plaudits issued towards Apple by many were swiftly followed by a backlash. That may have also prevented Apple’s share price from soaring to new heights off of the back of the news. Apple increased around 6% in value throughout January, a strong showing for the world’s most valuable public company but not a spectacular one. Its earnings pushed Apple shares to the $119 ceiling previously reached in November 2014, but it has not yet broached that value.

Among 51 brokers, perception of Apple is overwhelming positive: four out of every five recommend buying the stock. Many see huge growth for the company, with price targets as high as $160 on its stock. There is a dissenting voice however, with one broker recommending a ‘strong sell’ on Apple’s shares.

Reaching the targeted $160 per share would be a big deal for Apple. It would require growth of over 35% from its value as of the end of January. That feat was managed by the company in 2014, but to do so again from Apple’s current position would be much harder. It would represent an increase in value of over $238 billion for the business: the equivalent of swallowing an Alibaba or Facebook whole.

Apple’s market cap at that level would be in excess of $900 billion, beating Microsoft’s record of $880 billion (actually $618 billion in 1999, which becomes $880 billion when inflation is taken into account). It would be well on course to becoming the world’s first trillion dollar public company, with a value more than that attributed to the Netherlands.

The most common reason given for why Apple will fail to meet those lofty expectations is the company’s overreliance on the iPhone.

The iPhone 6 and 6+ were absolutely pivotal to Apple’s success last quarter. Many mind-blowing figures have hit the markets surrounding how many iPhones have been sold, including the headline stat that 34,991 handsets were sold every hour, around the clock. In total, 69% of Apple’s revenues were driven by the iPhone, and even more of its profits. Revenues from the iPhone increased 57%.

Two drivers behind this growth are immediately clear. Firstly, the iPhone 6 represents a clear departure from the steady iterative releases of all models before it. Secondly, growth in China was nothing short of staggering.

Can Apple maintain the success of the iPhone 6, and continue to ramp up competition against major rivals in both China and India? If not, then it will have to hope that its first piece of true new innovation since the iPad – the Apple Watch – can be a success. There are plenty of reasons to believe that both technologies can take off: not least the looming services of Apple Pay and streaming on iTunes.

The continuing scepticism over Apple’s future found in some quarters may be down to the nature of company’s success. In the digital era Apple has thrived with a fairly traditional business model.

Eschewing the attempts of key rivals Google, Amazon and Facebook to diversify revenue as much as possible; Apple have instead focussed on delivering a small suite of products capable of driving huge amounts of profit. It’s quite clear that, thus far at least, such a model has not held them back.


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